We start by exploring strategies for eliciting explicit, coherent numerical predictive distributions from LLMs.

Rapid information access is vital during wildfires, yet traditional data sources are slow and costly. Social media offers real-time updates, but extracting relevant insights remains a challenge. In this work, we focus on multimodal wildfire social media data, which, although existing in current datasets, is currently underrepresented in Canadian contexts. We present WildFireCan-MMD, a new multimodal dataset of X posts from recent Canadian wildfires, annotated across twelve key themes. We evaluate zero-shot vision-language models on this dataset and compare their results with those of custom-trained and baseline classifiers. We show that while baseline methods and zero-shot prompting offer quick deployment, custom-trained models outperform them when labelled data is available. Our best-performing custom model reaches 84.48% f-score, outperforming VLMs and baseline classifiers. We also demonstrate how this model can be used to uncover trends during wildfires, through the collection and analysis of a large unlabeled dataset. Our dataset facilitates future research in wildfire response, and our findings highlight the importance of tailored datasets and task-specific training. Importantly, such datasets should be localized, as disaster response requirements vary across regions and contexts.

We start by exploring strategies for eliciting explicit, coherent numerical predictive distributions from LLMs.

This thesis explores the impact of the Climate Emergency movement on local government climate policy, using computational methods. The Climate Emergency movement sought to accelerate climate action at local government level through the mechanism of Climate Emergency Declarations (CEDs), resulting in a series of commitments from councils to treat climate change as an emergency. With the aim of assessing the potential of current large language models to answer complex policy questions, I first built and configured a system named PALLM (Policy Analysis with a Large Language Model), using the OpenAI model GPT-4. This system is designed to apply a conceptual framework for climate emergency response plans to a dataset of climate policy documents. I validated the performance of this system with the help of local government policymakers, by generating analyses of the climate policies of 11 local governments in Victoria and assessing the policymakers' level of agreement with PALLM's responses. Having established that PALLM's performance is satisfactory, I used it to conduct a large-scale analysis of current policy documents from local governments in the state of Victoria, Australia. This thesis presents the methodology and results of this analysis, comparing the results for councils which have passed a CED to those which did not. This study finds that GPT-4 is capable of high-level policy analysis, with limitations including a lack of reliable attribution, and can also enable more nuanced analysis by researchers. Its use in this research shows that councils which have passed a CED are more likely to have a recent and climate-specific policy, and show more attention to urgency, prioritisation, and equity and social justice, than councils which have not. It concludes that the ability to assess policy documents at scale opens up exciting new opportunities for policy researchers.

Effective decision making in partially observable environments requires compressing long interaction histories into informative representations. We introduce Descriptive History Representations (DHRs): sufficient statistics characterized by their capacity to answer relevant questions about past interactions and potential future outcomes. DHRs focus on capturing the information necessary to address task-relevant queries, providing a structured way to summarize a history for optimal control. We propose a multi-agent learning framework, involving representation, decision, and question-asking components, optimized using a joint objective that balances reward maximization with the representation's ability to answer informative questions. This yields representations that capture the salient historical details and predictive structures needed for effective decision making. We validate our approach on user modeling tasks with public movie and shopping datasets, generating interpretable textual user profiles which serve as sufficient statistics for predicting preference-driven behavior of users.

In Query-driven Travel Recommender Systems (RSs), it is crucial to understand the user intent behind challenging natural language (NL) destination queries such as the broadly worded "youth-friendly activities" or the indirect description "a high school graduation trip". Such queries are challenging due to the wide scope and subtlety of potential user intents that confound the ability of retrieval methods to infer relevant destinations from available textual descriptions such as WikiVoyage. While query reformulation (QR) has proven effective in enhancing retrieval by addressing user intent, existing QR methods tend to focus only on expanding the range of potentially matching query subtopics (breadth) or elaborating on the potential meaning of a query (depth), but not both. In this paper, we introduce Elaborative Subtopic Query Reformulation (EQR), a large language model-based QR method that combines both breadth and depth by generating potential query subtopics with information-rich elaborations. We also release TravelDest, a novel dataset for query-driven travel destination RSs. Experiments on TravelDest show that EQR achieves significant improvements in recall and precision over existing state-of-the-art QR methods.

Gaussian process (GP) models that combine both categorical and continuous input variables have found use in longitudinal data analysis of and computer experiments. However, standard inference for these models has the typical cubic scaling, and common scalable approximation schemes for GPs cannot be applied since the covariance function is non-continuous. In this work, we derive a basis function approximation scheme for mixed-domain covariance functions, which scales linearly with respect to the number of observations and total number of basis functions. The proposed approach is naturally applicable to also Bayesian GP regression with discrete observation models. We demonstrate the scalability of the approach and compare model reduction techniques for additive GP models in a longitudinal data context. We confirm that we can approximate the exact GP model accurately in a fraction of the runtime compared to fitting the corresponding exact model. In addition, we demonstrate a scalable model reduction workflow for obtaining smaller and more interpretable models when dealing with a large number of candidate predictors.

Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed to integrate this prior knowledge into probabilistic modeling typically limits the application of these models to specialists. Our goal is to build a regression model that can process numerical data and make probabilistic predictions at arbitrary locations, guided by natural language text which describes a user's prior knowledge. Large Language Models (LLMs) provide a useful starting point for designing such a tool since they 1) provide an interface where users can incorporate expert insights in natural language and 2) provide an opportunity for leveraging latent problem-relevant knowledge encoded in LLMs that users may not have themselves. We start by exploring strategies for eliciting explicit, coherent numerical predictive distributions from LLMs. We examine these joint predictive distributions, which we call LLM Processes, over arbitrarily-many quantities in settings such as forecasting, multi-dimensional regression, black-box optimization, and image modeling. We investigate the practical details of prompting to elicit coherent predictive distributions, and demonstrate their effectiveness at regression. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to usefully incorporate text into numerical predictions, improving predictive performance and giving quantitative structure that reflects qualitative descriptions. This lets us begin to explore the rich, grounded hypothesis space that LLMs implicitly encode.

Remote sensing of the Earth's surface water is critical in a wide range of environmental studies, from evaluating the societal impacts of seasonal droughts and floods to the large-scale implications of climate change. Consequently, a large literature exists on the classification of water from satellite imagery. Yet, previous methods have been limited by 1) the spatial resolution of public satellite imagery, 2) classification schemes that operate at the pixel level, and 3) the need for multiple spectral bands. We advance the state-of-the-art by 1) using commercial imagery with panchromatic and multispectral resolutions of 30 cm and 1.2 m, respectively, 2) developing multiple fully convolutional neural networks (FCN) that can learn the morphological features of water bodies in addition to their spectral properties, and 3) FCN that can classify water even from panchromatic imagery. This study focuses on rivers in the Arctic, using images from the Quickbird, WorldView, and GeoEye satellites. Because no training data are available at such high resolutions, we construct those manually. First, we use the RGB, and NIR bands of the 8-band multispectral sensors. Those trained models all achieve excellent precision and recall over 90% on validation data, aided by on-the-fly preprocessing of the training data specific to satellite imagery. In a novel approach, we then use results from the multispectral model to generate training data for FCN that only require panchromatic imagery, of which considerably more is available. Despite the smaller feature space, these models still achieve a precision and recall of over 85%. We provide our open-source codes and trained model parameters to the remote sensing community, which paves the way to a wide range of environmental hydrology applications at vastly superior accuracies and 2 orders of magnitude higher spatial resolution than previously possible.

A renowned photographer has captured the highest resolution shots of snowflakes ever using a homemade prototype described as one part microscope and one part camera. Nathan Myhrvold, an American scientist, inventor, photographer and ex-chief technology officer of Microsoft, took 18 months to build the 100 megapixel camera capable of capturing a snowflake's microscopic detail. Using the camera, which he describes as the'highest resolution snowflake camera in the world', he took 100 frames of each snowflake in quick succession then stacked them for the whole image to be in focus. The results show the lush variety of snowflakes measuring only a few tens of millimetres in diameter, captured when Myhrvold was in Alaska and Canada. Pictured, stellar dendrite captured in Yellowknife, Canada.